Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 39.700123 46.856573 54.676427 63.822366 74.191050 85.545799 98.884643
2025-01-12 30.756438 40.715573 52.607815 67.705079 86.197988 107.942785 135.260736
2025-01-19 22.566241 32.878416 46.120199 64.059376 87.380137 116.298690 154.449706
2025-01-26 19.082758 30.050959 44.975610 66.242390 95.166052 132.477442 183.488200
2025-02-02 17.173472 28.902821 45.662380 70.561050 105.686198 152.446666 218.193182
2025-02-09 15.030217 26.984438 44.885498 72.546315 112.914520 168.223944 247.984859
2025-02-16 13.112158 25.056627 43.761133 73.747984 118.902601 182.413672 276.116395
2025-02-23 11.260680 22.909253 41.977104 73.664024 122.835661 193.739795 300.618166
2025-03-02 9.460291 20.532793 39.495793 72.164126 124.389479 201.551770 320.304417
2025-03-09 8.159976 18.827071 37.882682 71.814187 127.540522 211.689989 343.606549
2025-03-16 6.524315 16.180757 34.300005 67.810598 124.548407 212.339597 352.807690
2025-03-23 5.935195 15.527624 34.184492 69.642881 130.991939 227.559513 384.289604
2025-03-30 4.992785 14.053904 32.553458 69.012546 133.914835 238.383499 411.094333
2025-04-06 4.665664 13.907717 33.497144 73.185234 145.364043 263.494300 461.472684
2025-04-13 3.631679 11.847312 30.302172 69.298987 142.541372 265.419711 475.548456
2025-04-20 3.279366 11.395481 30.370880 71.627492 150.800593 285.825815 519.804190
2025-04-27 3.132388 11.455916 31.548996 76.231275 163.435886 314.066916 577.773567
2025-05-04 2.827642 11.003168 31.510300 78.346533 171.581028 335.039282 624.619885
2025-05-11 2.509061 10.426534 31.097966 79.626571 178.201125 353.645254 668.202259
2025-05-18 2.159271 9.653175 30.096277 79.537143 182.157692 367.747147 704.723157
2025-05-25 1.790691 8.698200 28.487820 77.939370 183.022542 376.373119 732.228510
2025-06-01 1.528972 8.023697 27.483757 77.566542 186.243929 389.282398 767.444351
2025-06-08 1.172004 6.846823 24.918866 73.299618 181.230071 386.943914 776.073095